In the absence of credible opinion polls (as opposed to the incredibly misleading opinion poll published in the Sunday Crimes last Sunday ) only a fool would confidently make a prediction about next years general election results. In the previous election some analysts predicted that the ANC would lose support and that the DA would dramatically increase their support – but this turned out to be spectacularly wrong.
The same talking heads once again started wondering aloud whether the ANC support in the next election may not drop dramatically because of the ANC infighting and because of unhappiness among especially female voters of all races, with Jacob Zuma’s perceived sexism.
But these predictions are based on two very problematic assumptions, namely that many people who are unhappy with the ANC would actually stay at home or vote for one of the opposition parties and that traditional opposition voters would continue to go to the polls and vote in the same numbers as in previous elections.
Some political scientists – pointing to trends in other post-colonial countries in Africa and elsewhere,- cautions that even where the electorate in such countries lose faith in the party of liberation, they seldom immediately vote for another party because for them party affiliation is less about policies and more about identity. What usually happens, they say, is that in a one party dominant system with a strong liberation party in government, people who are disaffected often just stop voting.
They feel that voting will not change anything, so they just sit at home and complain. This effects not just the governing party supporters but also opposition supporters. What usually happens then is that far fewer people go to the polls but that the majority party often increases its percentage share of the vote – even when far fewer people vote for them.
Often, a liberation party can then manage to garner between 70-80% of the vote at the polls, despite the fact that they only get 30-40% support from eligible voters. The same thing might well happen at the next election in South Africa with the ANC increasing its percentage of the vote, despite the fact that they receive far fewer votes than before.
Who knows if this is also what would have happened if the ANC had limped into the next election deeply divided with an unpopular sitting President and a deeply flawed Presidential candidate? Would many disgruntled South Africans really have voted for the ragtag of opposition parties? But maybe the firing of Thabo Mbeki and the selection of Kgalema Motlanthe as caretaker President will turn out to be quite an inspired electoral move on the part of the ANC.
Unless the disgruntled ANC members form a strong and principled opposition party in the next few weeks, many traditional ANC supporters might now feel ready again to support the ANC. Motlanthe seems like a likeable man with a steady hand. He has also fired the Minister of Health and has brought some new blood into the cabinet, which might well inspire many traditional ANC voters not to stay at home.
It makes one feel good about the ANC to read that the new Minister of Health has said she would make HIV/AIDS a top priority. If other new Ministers can also show that they have learnt from past mistakes, this could spell electoral disaster for the DA who might find it difficult to convince its traditional voters that going to the polls would make a difference. With the exception of the Western Cape, where the ANC is not assured of winning, opposition voters might well be the one’s staying at home, and this would bring a crushing victory for the ANC.
It would be ironic if Motlanthe’s selection helps Jacob Zuma to win the next election with an even larger majority than Mbeki did in the previous election. Who knows what will happen in the next few months, but just today I am thinking that by selecting Motlanthe as an interim President the ANC might just have improved their chances of an electoral wipe-out next year.
If I was Helen Zille I would be quite worried about the Motlanthe effect. The only way she can get her supporters to go to the polls is to scare them with “fight b(l)ack” tactics, but this would alienate the black people and white progressives who might have considered voting for her. Maybe, just maybe, Motlanthe will yet be the end of the DA? Not that I am making any predictions. In politics a week is a long time and six months is a lifetime.
You must be dreaming.
khosi
Dit was ook my 1ste reaksie.
Koos – Is jou van dalk Van der Merwe?
Khosi – This is a Nightmare!
Prof,
Wake up and read this:-
http://www.mg.co.za/article/2008-10-02-anc-criticism-amounts-to-notice-of-resignation
I have to agree with you prof in this one. You see the anc is gifted with such huge intellect and has a science of managing its internal conflicts. I send a strong warning to the DA we will wipe them out next year. Take note of the new western cape premier. She is female and coloured those are the strong points DA relied on in Hellen Zille. We have equaled that part. Now citizens will be faced to listen election manifestos. Ours tops them all boosted by its practicality and the anc’s experience in goverment. So Khosi indeed it is a nightmare.
@ Khosi
The conflict you refering us to are a non factor. You see when you go to campaign citizens are not concerned with your (reported) internal problems. Rather they interested to what you have to offer to them. Is it not going to shock you if TM joins in the campaigns on election what we call as house to house visits. I bet as a disciplined member of the anc he will head the call when its made. So indeed we are hearding for a real shocker.
The anc lives the anc leads!!!!
@T,
1.) According to the ANC and its allies, TM has been ‘arrogant’ and ‘belligerent’ since his loss in Polokwane.
2.) He was not even attending ANC meetings and rallies.
3.) Last week, Mantashe blamed him for the crash of the markets that resulted from the release of minister resignations. Claiming this was done to ‘embarrass’ the ANC NEC.
4.)Today his ‘chief howler’ is involved in a public brawl with the ANC NEC.
5.) Tomorrow TM is going to court against the President of the ANC, to clear his name.
Do you really see him going door to door telling people that the ANC is the best that can happen to them? Do you really even think that the ANC is, so vain, that they would as him to join them on the election campaign?
Read both those letters. ‘Disciplined’ does not equal ‘loyal’. But I am glad that you know that the ANC need TM in that campaign.
I love the ANC, so much, my heart bleeds.
There is another positive to this current situation. Zuma’s case has drawn in traditionally IFP supporters who perceived Zuma as a victim of a Xhosa nostra who may just vote for the ANC thinking they are voting for Umsholozi. I think the biggest losers may be the IFP.
Stalin is tacitly saying that Zulus are stupid. I take offense.
Khosi
I posted this before, but not sure if you saw it.
Did you know about the murder of one of Mbeki’s bodyguards, just a few days before he was sacked?
” Sept. 19 (Bloomberg) — South African President Thabo Mbeki’s bodyguard was shot and killed last night while he slept at his home in Shoshanguve, a township north of Pretoria, according to a news broadcast on ETV.
Captain Francois Ramashile, who was Mbeki’s “close protection officer” for 13 years, was shot three times, the Johannesburg-based television channel reported today. Ramashile’s wife was unharmed and most of his possessions left untouched, ETV said. Police are investigating a case of murder but could not rule out assassination, according to ETV. ”
From:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601116&sid=ahKwOyo4tVKs&refer=africa
It does sure look like an assasination: 3 bullets while asleep, wife unharmed, nothing taken.
I am not saying that it is definitely so, since I am sure bodyguards make some enemies sometimes, but if someone wanted to send a message you can’t get any clearer than that (murder of the one supposed to protect you).
I am surprised the media has not yet exploited this. I would have expected large print headlines.
We shouldn’t forget that Motlanthe is still accountable to the ANC which Zuma is the president.
If he doesn’t follow the mandate he can be recalled at anytime anyday!
VIVA DEMOCRACY VIVA!!
z,
Apparently, the bodyguards wife and two accomplices have been arrested and are suspects in the murder. Could very well be a case of the ‘black widow’. I, personally, think there is nothing much there.
khosi // Oct 3, 2008 at 1:13 pm
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If that is the case then they were taking advantage of the political controversies in order to derive illicit benefits. I hope she knows that the law of succession will deprive her of the right to inherit in the estate of her husband but will be entitled to only her half share if aplicable. Secondly, the law of insurance will not allow her to benefit if she killed the insured. Thirdly, the criminal law will be on her case as she has committed crime. Fourthly, her minor kids may institute a claim against her for maintenance. Fifthly, the debtors of her husband may claim against her to make good her husband’s debts if applicable. We will see.
I must state that Prof has a point. But until DA send some white people to come and stay in the villages they will never rule South Africa in the current form unless 60% of its leadership and membership is Black.
The racial factor is very deep. My white neigbour refused lend me a No 13 spanner simply because of my ancestry. He is a motor mechanic. So until this historical racial hatred and conflict subsists, I will not be convinced of the nurturing of true democracy of its previous opposers.
This mentality is innate in many africans. They only way the DA can in fact take on the ANC is to genuinely fight to obliterate racism and inculcate a sense of social intergration of south african society.
The effect of Aperheid is so deep. Whites stay in mainly exclusive surbarbs or shacks and seek to retain the hold on the strategic tenents of the economy.
But American politics seem to refute my suggestion.
I truly believe a lot rests on how the ANC accelerates delivery on the previous promises and get out to speak to voters and comprehensively explain our actions to local communities , most of whom, Prof see you you on television but do not even know your name or what you are saying for cultural reasons.
All these people(majority) care about is not who leads the ANC and who is kicking who but whether jobs are created; decent housing; roads and acess to education and health care. Security and so on.
The blogging excitement in which I participate is not their business. The ANC is of course concerned about the challenges facing the organisation and it is hard at work to forge unity and cohesion not for the sake of it but advancement of the national democratic revolution.
This organisation exists almost in every ward of the land and seeks to use this strength to offset the effect of the transient conflictual trajectory.
What do you say of Mr. Lekota. In the ANC it is regard as very calculated antics to depict the imminent departure of the man(lekota and friends) as a collosal rupture involving rightious liberation fighters.
It could be very good to have an opposition drawn from champions of the liberation of our noble motherland/fatherland than those that oppressed and subjugated our forebears.
It is unfortunate that most south africans are loyal to the ANC that when they are in this sought of challenges they go back to ANC structures and ventilate their concerns to strengthen the ANC.
The ANC does not undermine the views of the people. The surging opposition to the dismantling of the Scorpions in the current form is not a concern of the indigenous majority of South Africans. It is a concern of the elite which enjoys the capacity to swamp the media instruments with their views.
The localities have different priorities. The ANC is deeply concerned about the social turbulence precipitated by slow and absent delivery in various communities. This is what the ANC seeks to deal with effectively to restore the confidence of the people in the ANC.
The more DA venomously attacks the ANC and does not appreciate the efforts undertaken to improve the lot of our people and share in that effort, it will not cover ground.
But of course, they are not being undermined, they keep the ANC focused on the tasks resting on its shoulders
Prof what makes the research we conduct is that we do not undertake this were the real poor people live. We do this in cities. Interview friends in towns.
When a villager calls a press conference, the elite media will never come. The media regards the poor rural masses are passive recipients of news. Oh! big mistake, in the rural hinderland, the local communities still talk about how Jan van Riebeck dispossessed them of cattle and land and talk about the farms being their land.
Your never get to hear this robust debates, then the ANC introduces Restitution Act for legitimate government purpose, then the DA opposes and the ANC will always be seen as the champion of the rights of people so long as this social scenario prevails.
We need to go beyond the parochial intellectualistic theorising and confront the stark reality of our situation.
Our chilren grow up hearing of the pass law, segregation camps, kitchen work. Prof. look at law firms white students seldom want to work in a black firm. White firms do not want to put africans as directors in their great firms.
White judges accuse black judges of jurisprudential mediocrity and bad legal writing. Have you ever attempted to lecture in Xhosa or Pedi. Did you ever see a judgment in a High Court written in any african language to assert the values of our Contitution. I am yet to see it. It is this fundamentals that cause the social divide and will always undercore the performance of the ANC in relation to DA.
Why do you PAC and AZAPO being part of the liberation movement but remaining small parties, it is because only the gurus speak. In the ANC, there is a culture of robust polemical discourse, yet on the basis of democratic centralism, when the meeting is over they wipe the tears and sweat and defend the common position arrived at by the collective.
Why the popular Holomisa could not make it It is because indigeonus south africans value your political credentials than your media appearance.
All kinds of derogatory epithets are hurled at the youth league, there are all sorts of views emanating from debates in that organisation. There are also young aspirant organic intellectuals that may not want to participate in a mud-slinging spectre.
The debate about electoral victory is not simply about Zuma being President. Zuma will and go and the ANC will majestically soldier on. We need to know that the reason why ANC members want Zuma is that there is a culture of generational space. It is so ingrained. It may come to change. certificated people should at least fathom that in the ANC the individual does not prevail over the organisation, the organisation does.
This debate will not end.
Thanks
Do not mind the typographical mistakes no editing ! Sorry Scholars !
Ishmael Malale
Hands off cader. This is a very good article. I agree with all that you say. As a young lion i wish you would have elaborated more on the youth league and why south african youth jion it in thier thousands. But tell me is it that realy bad to be educated in the organisation.
Sandra // Oct 1, 2008 at 2:45 pm
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Ok thanks for your clarification in respect of the reasonable person test.
Well I opine that law in its entirety is far away from the ordinary person on the street. There are many people who unwillingly engage in illicit activities out there without knowing that they are actually breaking the law. A common example will be the crime of statutory rape. Most guys do not even know that there is an existence of such a thing in South Africa. People commit that crime without knowing that it is crime.
Unfortunately for all those who do not know the law, the court in S V Bloem held that ignorance of the law is n excuse. In that case the Mrs. Bloem took with her, on her way to the United States of America, certain proportions of American dollars and certain quantities of diamonds in contravention of the then applicable statute which prohibited the taking abroad of such quantities. Mrs. Bloem did not hide the said goods and money when about to board her plane to show, as it was argued, that she did not have an intention to break the law but was simply unaware of it. The court convicted her and held that ignorance of the law is no excuse or ignorance of the law excuses no one (Ignorantia juris non excusat or Ignorantia legis neminem excusat); once reasonable measures have been taken to let the public know of a certain law’s existence, everyone affected by that law is taken to be in knowledge thereof regardless of the true state of affairs. This stems of course from Roman Dutch Law which is one of the cornerstones of our justice system.
In conclusion, I really think that the law in its current state is kilometres away from the reach of the ordinary people on the street and more must be done to educate those people and then educate them about the law which in its current form is merely a Western construct to them which does not affect them but affects only those who are learned…
I sometimes get problems advising a person about the legal implications of their statements or actions. Some are not punctual and that results in delays when it comes to drafting pleas or responding to letters. This has profound implications as you may be served with a Notice of Bar thereby extinguishes your chance to Request Further Particulars which will make it easier for you to serve and file your plea. This also causes Default Judgments to be taken and it becomes a mess for you as an attorney. This affects me a lot because I am in a legal aid clinic and therefore we target indigent people who cannot afford legal fees and who do not qualify for legal aid from the Legal Aid Board…
Thanks Sne, to bring the conversation back to the Hlope Judgment, bearing in mind our discussion. Are we seeing a more African viewpoint in the majority Judgment, a sort of view based on what the judges feel is equitable or just with a disregard of the legal niceties in law as seems to have been suggested by a fair amount of bloggers? While the Minority judges go straight toward legal ‘niceties’ disregarding what may or may not be equitable in the circumstances?
I am trying to understand in particular the different style of Judgments rather than the different outcomes.
Sandra // Oct 4, 2008 at 2:12 pm
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I cannot say that for sure but…
The Supreme Court of Appeal in Livenstment CC v Hammersley and Another 2008 (3) SA 283 (SCA), quoted in De Rebus, July 2008, at pages 42-43, decided to overturn a long-established precedent relating to servitudes on the ground of convenience and equity. This Appellate Division (the then Supreme Court of Appeal) precedent was laid down 88 years ago by a very strong bench which comprised Innes CJ, De Villiers AJA and Juta AJA in the case of Garden Estate Ltd v Lewis 1920 AD 144.
Amongst other things, the court held that it was persuaded that the interests of justice do indeed require a change in our established law on the subject, i.e. servitudes…
On a conclusive note I think it would be prudent to merely suspect that indeed it may be that our justice system is changing from the “legal rigidism” to a more liberal African approach to delivering judgments, having proper regard of course to the fact that we are not living in the times of Voet, Justinian, etc. times but in the 21st century where things have drammatically changed. I will end with a quote from the De Rebus on page 43;
“The decision will no doubt be applauded by many on the ground of equity ans also because the judgment achieves a result which is, from a practical point of view, sensible. However, some question whether it is advisable to overturn long-established legal principle inthe interests of equity and practicality. Such a result creates uncertainty in the law and the possibility of the legal principle being trumped by the subjective judgment of whatever court might be siezed with a particular legal issue.”
NB: I strongly suggest that you read the relevant article in the De Rebus in order to acquaint yourself with the facts of the case or at least refer to the case so that you may come to your own conclusions…
Sandra // Oct 4, 2008 at 2:12 pm
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I must admit that I am one of those people who advocate for a more liberal African approach to considering cases and delivering judgments in South Africa having regard to its peculiar position amongst other democratic countries in the world. We are fostering our own identity in other aspects of life and by necessity the judiciary must also transform itself towards achieving the stated objectives in the Constitution. It is not enough to merely change those laws which are repugnant to the Constitutional values but it is also necessary that new judgments should highlight the different times that we live in and contain that transformational element.
I am not advocating for a “judicial revolution” which will erode the principle of legality and legal certainty but I am merely pointing out that judges should be conscious of the times we live in as South Africans and not draw illussionary comparisons to other democracies’ jurisprudence which may not necessarily have a direct and desirable application in the South African context, in delivering their judgments. They should embrace the peculiar South African context and this must be manifested in their judgments.
It fully concur with Adv Ishmael Malale, the scars of apartheid in South Africa are too deep to can heal so fast. The DA’s hopes of winning the elections very soon is just a pipe dream. It does not need a traditional healer or a scietific reseacher to tell that there is still racial discrimination and other forms of unfair discimination by whites on poor blacks. Or let me put it in this way, most if not all black South Africans view the ANC as the only capable political party wich can save them from these maltreatment on their own soil.Lastly to Hellen, is good to dream,just keep on …Africa my begining, Africa my ending.