The Science Daily reports on new research about the estimated amount of lives lost because of the delay in implementing a comprehensive antiretroviral programme in South Africa. It compares the situation in South Africa to that in neighbouring countries and come to the following conclusion:
More than 330,000 lives were lost to HIV/AIDS in South Africa from 2000 and 2005 because a feasible and timely antiretroviral (ARV) treatment program was not implemented, assert researchers from the Harvard School of Public Health (HSPH) in a study published online by the Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes.
In addition, an estimated 35,000 babies were born with HIV during that same period in the country because a feasible mother-to-child transmission prophylaxis program using nevirapine (an anti-AIDS drug) was not implemented, the authors write.
Wonder what Manto Tshabalala-Msimang and Thabo Mbeki would say about this study….
Exactly my thoughts when I read the paper this morning. … How many people died without a liver transplant?
I concur and also wonder TM is thinking when sees this, you politik and philosophise academically about causal nexus whilst the innocent elctorate and babies are dying!
The paper does not consider how many lives were saved due to the diversion of funds from ARV programmes to programmes focused on prevention (e.g. ABC programme, etc), nor does it consider how many lives were saved by the diversion of funds in order to expand the social security net, amongst others (therefore ensuring better nutrition, better education, etc, i.e. socio-economic prerequisites for combating HIV/AIDS and other diseases of poverty). Nor does the article consider the impact that the non-availability of ARVs could have had in regard to social behavior (in this respect consider the impact of the free availability of contraceptive pills, abortions, etc, on sexual behavior; does it have an impact of encouraging irresponsible sexual practices owing to the existence of measures that may reverse any adverse consequence, etc?).
I do not dispute the findings of the study referred to by Prof de Vos, but as a lawyer I am wary of making absolute conclusions on the basis of snippets of data and find it strange that a lawyer would gleefully make inferences based on inadequate information.
Was Mbeki given a chance to expatiate the stance his government took in respect of HIV/AIDS treatment drugs? I would love to read it, just to balance this article…
Vuyo // Oct 22, 2008 at 3:46 pm
Excellent, just excellent.
Another aspect that the study does not look at, is the amount of HIV negative people that might have been at risk of infection if the 330 000 departed had continued to circulate in society. It might be a cruel thing to say, but its true.
ARV’s are not the be all, end all of the fight against HIV.
Sne,
Mbeki was asked to shut his mouth in so far as HIV/AIDS is concerned, by the ANC. Having been a loyal cadre, he obliged.
Khosi – Now that’s what I call ‘passing the buck’!
So Botswana began its national ARV programme already in 2001. Now, it has an estimated adult HIV prevalence of about 24%, the second-highest in the world after Swaziland.
Does this suggest that ARVs are accelerating HIV infections? Are people perhaps lulled into a false sense of security now that they’re being told that HIV/Aids is merely a “manageable condition”? Does Science Daily know about the people who believe ARVs were created by evil Western scientists intent on harming Africans? Do they know that far too many people refuse to be tested, because of the stigma? How far too many people don’t bother to use condoms because “it won’t happen to them”? Do they know about the toxic side effects of ARVs, causing people to intermittently stop taking them?
Prof
A very entertaining and humorus posting/article Prof. However i have a observation i would like to rely to you in relation to the number of articles you seem to be posting is of late been numerous. This has left at a lot of us without the ability to reasonable think, contemplate, construct and formulate constructive responses and counter arguments as per post. Khosi has been getting of easily. We also do not have the luxury of been recalled and resigning or taking holiday trips to Spain or attending meangless talks in the North at the magnificent Rainbow Towers hotel.
To all bloggers,
my apologies if you disagree.
Khosi, Vuyo, Clara et al – all this rationalising doesn’t hide the fact that a great number of ordinary citizens died when their lives would have been saved (or at least significantly lengthened) by the state, had the state heeded the advice of the world’s vast majority of medical experts. This will remain a big stain on his legacy.
I am not overjoyed with the new crew of ANC leadership – I will not vote for them as things stand now, this after voting ANC in the 1st two elections (OK, I admit that I voted DA for provincial in the Western Cape in the last election where, in my defense, the ANC is a shambles). I, however, am not a loyal and committed cadre of the ANC, I am sommer a voter, and now I will vote for the next biggest party against the ANC (wether DA, UDANC (or whatever), or a merger of the two).
Two things I do appreciate about the Zuma-ANC are that:
1. – they are showing some comittment towards dealing with HIV/AIDS – firing Thabo and Manto were very good steps in this direction
2. – they are a lot more whitey friendly than “two nations” Thabo – Phosa is batting a lot for us whiteys these days (now we can tender again for council work in Thabazimbi or whereever), and Zuma is quite comfortable having a braai with Steve stoffsuier etc. Being a whitey, this is music to my sore ears.
Actually, now that I think about it, perhaps perhaps I will vote for the ANC, especially if Mothlante remains at the helm.
Anyway, this is all assuming you are remotely interested in my voter preferences…
Clara // Oct 22, 2008 at 8:25 pm
My biggest fear is that we are now going to see an increase in HIV prevalence, precisely because people are now being led to believe that HIV is a manageable disease. People are now being injected the ‘morning after pill syndrome’ and that is extremely dangerous. If Botswana is anything to go by, we are looking at about 12-15 million South Africans infected in the next ten years.
But then, I guess I need to diversify my investments and look closer at the pharmaceuticals. There is a bundle to be made in this industry.
Mqo // Oct 22, 2008 at 9:12 pm
What are you saying?
Clara // Oct 22, 2008 at 8:25 pm
My biggest fear is that we are now going to see an increase in HIV prevalence, precisely because people are now being led to believe that HIV is a manageable disease. People are now being injected the ‘morning after pill syndrome’ and that is extremely dangerous. If Botswana is anything to go by, we are looking at about 12-15 million South Africans infected in the next ten years.
But then, I guess I need to diversify my investments and look closer at the pharmaceuticals. There is a bundle to be made in this industry.
Mqo // Oct 22, 2008 at 9:12 pm
What are you saying?
Mqo // Oct 22, 2008 at 9:12 pm
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Yes I agree. Prof seems to be on a record breaking chase when it comes to posting new articles. I believe he should allow us enought time to comment on each post before posting another one. This may not always be possible because news in South Africa happens all the time and must therefore be reflected herein.
However, such a strategy will also allow the Prof some advantages. One of them is that he will have enough time to read judgments before commenting on them. Secondly, he will allow a matter to be debated to a reasonable length. Thirdly, it would allow him time to post concluding remarks under each article that he writes so as to let us know what he intended, inter alia, to achieve by such posting. Fourthly, it will allow the Prof to give his opinions on each article he writes and not merely report what has happened in the news as if he is a newspaper editor or journalist. Fifthly, this will create more room for a debate because now people will have an option of agreeing with the opinion expressed in the article or disagree and support their opinions as well. Sixthly, this will minimise people veering off a topic in order to make the blog more interesting.
Peter,
It does seem that the Zuma-ANC is courting the whiteys. Phosa writes poems in Afrikaans, Zuma is reaching out to Afrikaners and dancing to the De la Rey song, there are talks of an end to Affirmative Action etc. Interesting.
“More than 330,000 lives were lost to HIV/AIDS in South Africa from 2000 and 2005…..”
Is the word “between” not perhaps omitted in the sentence?
Perhaps a ZERO was also omitted in the number?
Let the debate start….
ARV’s are not the be all, end all of the fight against HIV….agree totally
khosi // Oct 23, 2008 at 5:51 am
ARV’s dont stop people from infecting others, countless other factors arent considered….
khosi // Oct 23, 2008 at 5:51 am
“…But then, I guess I need to diversify my investments and look closer at the pharmaceuticals.”
I invested in ASPEN more than 30 months ago when I heard they got the “big” contract to manufacture ARV’s.
This investment has gone red for me, more than -24% over 30 months. (thanks to beetroot) Perhaps now is a good time to buy, because now the “product” will be used. Thank you Barbara Hogan. I hope to see a positive return on my investment now.
About the wonderfully benign medical fraternity. The technical aspects of the story might not be spot on, since I learnt of it some time ago, but the core point will be evident.
A certain medical practitioner developed a specialised cancer drug, which had very little side effects. He wrapped the active ingredients in a protein (or something) which only the cancer cells would consume releasing the active ingredients to target the cancer. He then went through all the trials necessary and came to the point where it needed to go to market.
Guess what? None of the medical companies wanted it. Why? There was existing medicine targeting this type of cancer, but which produced a whole lot of side effects. The result would be that they would lose a LOT of revenue from the numerous side effect medicines the patients normally used.
Ok. So he got investors and started a medical company. Guess what? None of the medical distribution companies wanted to handle his drug. Why? I’m sure you can guess. So he got investors and started a distribution company.
Now he is one of the richest men in America (and came from SA originally): Patrick Soon-Shiong
Also, contrary to what people might think in this age of the exaltation of scientists, many scientific theories are proven wrong as the decades progress. In this regard I will leave three thoughts.
1. Some sociological studies have suggested that scientists are no more objective than any other grouping of people.
2. A famous physicist said some years ago, in light of the number of theories that had been proven false over the preceding 30 years, that there is only one thing he can say with certainty “Nothing is faster than the speed of light… maybe”
3. In the US there were recently something like three theoretical physics research posts filled which were not in the field of String theory. Despite numerous problems with String theory, the majority believes it and the money and resources mostly get sucked into that one alternative. Strong group pressure also exists, if you don’t want to be ridiculed.
Knowing some of these things, I can understand why Mbeki would entertain the opinions of dissidents. Especially when some of them have amazing qualifications such as Peter Duesberg from Berkeley (he isolated the first cancer gene) and Kary Mullins (1993 Nobel Prize in Chemistry).
The problem was compounded by some dissidents honestly believing what Clara hints at, that the ARV’s are responsible for the symptoms.
Though it makes it difficult to decide to roll out drugs that you believe might harm your people, unfortunately I don’t think presidents have the luxury of deciding such matters. No president would have been blamed had he taken the majority’s view, even if it turned out to be wrong, at most he would have been blamed for not putting structures in place for researching dissident views as well.
And let’s face it dissident views don’t get research grants. Ok. I’ll leave it there.
z // Oct 23, 2008 at 9:43 am
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Another amazingly refreshing angle from yours trully… You are making it a habit of providing sane and objective facts on this blog… Hats off to you Z!
Peter
Here is one Afrikaner who is not enamored by the Zuma-ANC. I could probably write a 100 page dissertation on the topic and even have a file with Zuma quotations, but I will leave just one picture of this leader and his leadership when it matters.
Zuma’s court case. MK veterans had threatened the day before to destabilise the country and make it ungovernable if he were to lose. On the day we have hundreds of UNIFORMED MK veterans marching on the court. We have Malema shouting at Mbeki (the first time I heard him explicitly implicating him), the then president of the country.
What does the great leader do? Does he calm them down saying:
“Guys, I know you love me and don’t want to see me go down. But we shouldn’t use threats of violence, we fought too hard for our country for more people to die just because of me. We have many great comrades in our movement, who can take the struggle forward, the ANC does not stand or fall by one person. Let us not degrade the office of the presidency, let’s us respect our judicial institutions and our elders. We will fight this thing to the end, but not by violence. The freedom charter does not espouse violence. We shouldn’t threaten to destabilise the country.”
Nope. He stands in front of a crowd of war veterans in uniform who threatened the whole country of South Africa, and breaks into song: “Bring me my machine gun”.
This is the true lack of discipline. The whole country takes second place to Zuma and he encourages it.
Sne
Thanks.
The great test which most liberation movements in Africa have failed, is what they do when their power wanes. And I know the ANC is probably the greatest movement of them all, with a unique history of great people and great principles (like discouraging tribalism), but historically empires come and go. Will we see the gloves come off? Or have we seen signs of it already?
z // Oct 23, 2008 at 9:43 am
The thing I have always admired about you is that your logic comes from loads of reading and research when most of us, including myself, source logic from observing whats in front of them, of course with a bit of reading
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Great post indeed. Lets see anyone dispute that.
But to make you understand why TM had the gut to take that luxury, I quote him:-
“The person who does good, and does it honestly, must expect to be overpowered by the forces of evil. But it would be incorrect not to do good just because you know death is coming.”
khosi
I think that one of the biggest problems and challenges is actually spending enough time understanding and actually studying someone else’s view point. It is not easy to walk in someone else’s shoes, but by committing yourself to reading and listening open mindedly about someone else’s view points, you can come to a more balanced view of things. But you can’t just gloss over the other side’s arguments for then you we will only see “signals” (psych concept) proving your own point. In order to gain you must have a “willingness” to receive that information. (Studies have shown that if you don’t have “willingness” to receive certain traffic signs as “signals” your brain won’t inform you of their presence even though the information passed through and they become “noise”)
It is so easy to be swept along with the current of the group you naturally identify with.
One of the biggest causes of the high infection rate is denialism at an individual level. How many famous people die and yet all we hear is “short” or “long” illness!
And the belief in “prophets” and “sangomas” has not helped matters.
Samaita // Oct 23, 2008 at 1:18 pm
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I concur. However, denialism cannot be ‘nipped in the bud’ until society as a whole accepts that HIV/AIDS is a phenomenon of life. It still carries that stigma which causes families of those people who die therefrom to deny or conceal that the deceased has died therefrom. Such a disclosure would cause the presumption to remain that the rest of the family is infected and therefore it is better to not divulge it. This, unfortunately, causes people to see it as something that is far-fetched or which something which is in existence but which is not affecting them and will not affect them.
@ Z
I enjoyed reading your post this morning. I enjoy the way you reason. btw I am a scientist and I think you are accurate in what you said about most of us. I see it oh so often
@ Khosi
My point is proven. Just look, before i could even make an input, the dear Prof has posted another article (read On Obama). I am only alluding to the fact that unlike some pensioners (former Presidents) such as yourself we are not afforded the oppurtunity nor are we in a position to be in constant communication with the blog. As a student this blog provides insightful and thought provoking debates which goes a long way in shaping ones understanding about different and diverged views from a wide audience. All i am really saying is could the Prof simply SLOW-DOWN.
Kindly note that is but MY VIEW, if other bloggers are in disagreement and are in the majority, well i guess the Prof should put the foot on the pedal and write away.
Thanks Retsrov. It’s nice to hear it from a scientist, kudos to your admission.
Mqo // Oct 23, 2008 at 3:38 pm
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I share your sentiments Mqo. I refer you to my post agreeing with you;
Sne // Oct 23, 2008 at 8:32 am
Is it me or does Vuyo ALWAYS defend Dr Beetroot?
What I’d like to know is: what’s going to be done to help solve the problem?
Should they change policies?
And its qute simple that Manto was useless, now Ms Hogan has to get a brilliant team and fix the stuff-up.
@ Z. Two good posts! Your second one is very true and applies just as well to our more personal realtionships too – where we sometimes really need to try and walk in the other partners shoes from time to time…